Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold – and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From “gross diplomacy” on social media to...
Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can’t easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to...
Josef Schachter – President of Schachter Energy – walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can’t drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob...
Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India’s long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states,...
Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They...
Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland’s constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland...
Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn’t happen – interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what’s shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for...
Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today – a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that’s been through...
Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home – a...
Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran’s phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who’s actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no...
